All posts by Michael Patotschka

What does 2024 have in store for renewables in Africa?

February 1st, 2024 By Ben Payton Image : rufous / Adobe Stock

The private sector is playing an ever increasing role, but grid capacity constraints and macroeconomic headwinds pose key challenges
February 1st, 2024
At the beginning of 2024 Africa has come to a key juncture in its renewable energy rollout.

The potential of technologies such as wind and solar energy to help close the continent’s energy access gap is now beyond doubt. Across Africa, however, there are multiple challenges in accelerating the speed and scale of the drive for renewables.

Roughly half of Africa’s population, around 600m people, lacks access to electricity; millions more endure an unreliable or intermittent supply.

Solar, in particular, has a key role in bringing more reliable access. Most of Africa enjoys excellent conditions for solar generation; and solar is well-suited for both utility-scale projects and smaller schemes designed to serve homes and businesses in remote areas.

Last year’s COP28 climate conference, along with the Africa Climate Summit held in Nairobi last September, reaffirmed the importance of renewables on the continent.

But whether 2024 will see donors and development finance institutions (DFIs) turn commitments into action remains to be seen. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that $28bn in concessional capital is needed each year up to 2030 to mobilise $90bn in private sector investment – a more than tenfold increase from the present level.

Technologies mature

Hydropower, which has played a key role in the power sectors of many African countries for decades, remains the leading source of renewable energy on the continent. However, it is solar that is increasingly emerging as the main source of new capacity.

According to the African Solar Industry Association (AFSIA), the continent installed a record 3.7 GW in 2023, representing year-on-year growth of 19%. AFSIA notes that utility-scale solar projects are less common in Africa than in the United States, Europe or China. By contrast, it says 65% of the capacity added last year came from commercial and industrial projects – a large share of which are in South Africa.

“In [the] absence of reliable utility companies and grids supplying the required electricity, African companies and businesses finally have found an alternative with solar and storage thanks to plummeting prices of both key components,” AFSIA said in a report.

Meanwhile, cash-strapped utilities are increasingly looking to the private sector to supply electricity from large-scale wind and solar projects to the grid. In South Africa, a bidding round for independent power producer (IPP) projects, which will conclude in April, will be crucial for efforts to end the country’s disastrous power shortages.

Zambia is another country where the government is turning to the private sector, as it looks to extend electricity access to 60% of its population by 2030. Reforms introduced by President Hakainde Hichilema have facilitated private investment in the power market, with a focus on streamlining regulator approvals.

“Most renewable energy projects will continue to be financed at an increasing rate by the private sector in Zambia,” says Kusobile Kamwambi, head of the country’s Presidential Delivery Unit.

But one challenge, likely to become ever more evident in 2024, is that electricity grids in many African countries are struggling to absorb the power supplied by renewables. In Zambia, for example, ZESCO has set a cap of 50 MW on IPP projects – a limit that makes investment less attractive for some players in the sector.

Grids and batteries

The electricity shortages in countries such as South Africa highlight the importance of upgrading grid infrastructure at both the national and regional levels. Holger Rothenbusch, managing director and head of infrastructure and climate at British International Investment, the UK’s DFI, says that investment in cross-border transmission infrastructure will increase. He notes that there are “many exciting prospects” in decentralised renewable energy systems, which enable renewable generation in areas where grid access remains difficult.

“We are starting to see the potential of mini-grids to bring power to countries such as DRC and Burundi with historically low rates of access,” he says.
“Projects are being delivered with attractive financing models such as grants and private capital to mitigate offtake risk.”

Source: African Business , 1st February 2024

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AfDB wants Kenya, Tanzania electricity deals finalised

A police officer patrols substation of Kenya Electricity Transmission Company Limited in Suswa on August 4, 2017. PHOTO | AYUB MUIYURO | NMG

The African Development Bank (AfDB) wants Kenya and Tanzania to speed up the signing of three key agreements to pave the way for the exchange of excess electricity between the two countries via a Ksh43 billion ($309.26 million) line.

The three are a wheeling agreement between Tanzania Electric Supply Company (Tanesco) and Kenya Electricity Transmission Company Limited, a power exchange deal between Kenya Power and Tanesco and a tripartite deal for the maintenance of the interconnected grid.

The two neighbours were last month expected to complete the 507.5-kilometre line that runs from the Isinya substation to Arusha through Namanga. The line will have an intended transfer capacity of 2,000 megawatts.

Read: Kenya, Tanzania power line to be launched this year

AfDB— a major financier of the project— in its latest review said that the three deals are key to rolling out the regional power trade meant to boost electricity supply and cut reliance on the dirty and costly thermal power in the two countries.

“It is of significant importance that the afore-mentioned agreements are concluded as soon as possible to coincide with the completion and commissioning of the cross-border electricity infrastructure to pave the way for regional power trade,” AfDB says in the review.

Wheeling is the transfer of electricity from an electrical grid to an electrical load outside the grid boundaries through the use of existing distribution or transmission networks.

Completion of the 400 kilovolts line had been plunged into uncertainty as Ketraco delayed completing its share of the line due to hitches in compensating and resettling families along the project area.

The line whose construction started in 2015 will allow cross-border exchanges of cheap and cleaner surplus power from neighbouring countries in the Eastern Africa Power Pool countries.

Nations in the Eastern Africa Power Pool are Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, the Republic of Sudan, South Sudan, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Egypt, Somalia, Rwanda and Libya.

Kenya currently imports cheap hydroelectricity from Ethiopia and Uganda and the supplies have been critical in helping avoid power rationing especially last year when hydro-generation hit record lows on prolonged drought.

Read: Kenya electricity imports from Ethiopia halve on drought

Tanzania has recently been forced to ration power in some parts due to low hydro generation, highlighting the critical role of the line to the neighbouring country. The line will also allow Tanzania to tap cheap hydroelectricity from Ethiopia.

Ketraco had delayed the completion of the line on the Kenyan side which spans about 93 kilometres between Isinya substation and the border town of Namanga.

Source: The East African, 31st January 2024

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What is ECOWAS and why have 3 coup-hit nations quit the West Africa bloc?

Nigeria’s President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, center first row, poses for a group   –  Copyright © africanews  Gbemiga Olamikan/Copyright 2023 The AP.  All rights reserved

Several months of tension between three coup-hit countries in West Africa and the regional bloc known as ECOWAS (Economic Community of West Africa) boiled over when the nations announced their immediate withdrawal from the bloc and accused it of a lack of support and “inhumane” coup-related sanctions.

In their joint statement on Sunday, the juntas of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso said that instead of helping their countries fight the security threats facing them, ECOWAS imposed “illegitimate, inhumane and irresponsible” sanctions when they staged the coups “to take their destiny into their own hands.”

It’s the first time in the bloc’s nearly 50 years of existence that its members are withdrawing in such a manner. Analysts say it’s an unprecedented blow to the group and a further threat to the region’s stability.

How important is ECOWAS?

The 15-nation regional bloc Economic Community of West African States was established in 1975 with one goal: “To promote co-operation and integration … to raise the living standards of its peoples and to maintain and enhance economic stability. “It has since grown to become the region’s top political authority, often collaborating with states to solve domestic challenges on various fronts from politics to economy and security.

Under the current leadership of Nigeria, West Africa’s economic powerhouse, ECOWAS is needed more than ever with the region’s stability being threatened by rampant coups and security crises. It operates “in a world … where you need to be strong in one bloc and united in solidarity,” said Babacar Ndiaye, senior fellow with the Senegal-based Timbuktu Institute for Peace Studies.

The problem, though, Is that some believe ECOWAS Is fast losing goodwill and support from many West Africans who see it as failing to represent their interests in a region where citizens have complained of not benefitting from rich natural resources in their countries.

“When you see citizens pushing back and seeing ECOWAS as the leaders club or leaders who support each other at the detriment of citizens, it doesn’t work well,” said Oge Onubogu, director of the Africa Program at the U.S.-based Wilson Center think tank.

What is the process of withdrawal from the bloc?

The ECOWAS treaty provides that its member states who wish to quit the bloc shall give its leadership a one-year written notice, at the end of which “such a state shall cease to be a member of the community.”

The treaty says that during that year, the state planning to quit shall “nevertheless observe the provisions” and its obligations under the agreement. However, ECOWAS said it was yet to be notified about the three countries’ decision to quit and that they “remain important members” of the body for now.

Analysts say ECOWAS will likely seek a continued dialogue with the juntas on how best to ensure the region’s stability while the three nations’ military leaders focus on seeking new partnerships.

How significant is such a withdrawal?

One thing is clear. Relations between ECOWAS and the three countries have deteriorated because of the bloc’s choice of sanctions as a key tool to reverse the coups there.

The Alliance of Sahel States that the juntas created in November were also seen by observers as an attempt to legitimize their military governments, seek security collaborations and become increasingly independent of ECOWAS.

But withdrawing from the 49-year-old bloc in such a manner is unprecedented and seen as a “major change in the sub-region,” said Ndiaye with the Timbuktu Institute for Peace Studies.

“It is the most challenging issue facing the subregion since its inception,” said Ndiaye. “All the work they have put into building a collective security mechanism is based on the protocols that posit that democracy, good governance and the rule of law will be the basis for peace and security.”

Russia, prolonged military rule and other possible fallouts

ECOWAS has led efforts to return civilian rule to the coup-hit countries, pressuring the juntas with sanctions and rejecting lengthy transitional timetables.

The worry has been that there is little evidence to show the juntas are committed to holding democratic elections within those timelines. With Sunday’s announcement, analysts say the non-allegiance to ECOWAS may delay the return of democracy in the three countries and motivate coups in others.

“If they are no longer part of the ECOWAS bloc, they don’t have to abide by previous transitional timelines promulgated as a means of easing sanctions against them,” said Ryan Cummings, director of Africa-focused security consulting company Signal Risk.

Cummings says the withdrawal might result in a new opportunity for Russia to expand its presence and interests in Africa.

The once-friendly relations between the three countries and developed nations in the West and Europe had already turned sour after the coups. Russia meanwhile has been more welcoming and continues to play into anti-French sentiment by framing itself to African nations as a country that never colonized the continent.

The Russian mercenary group Wagner has been present in Mali, where it is partnering with the army in battling armed rebels. In Burkina Faso, state media reported last week that Russian soldiers arrived to “strengthen military and strategic cooperation” between the two countries. Both Russian and Nigerien senior officials have also recently hosted each other.

“These countries have in recent months reinforced and entrenched partnerships with Russia from national security to the economy,” said Cummings with Signal Risk.

How much support they could get from Russia remains to be seen. In African countries where Wagner has been present, security crises there have persisted while the mercenary group has been accused of various rights violations.

Source: AfricaNews, 29th January 2024

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U.S. Secretary of state says Nigeria is “essential” to global future

President Bola Tinubu receives US Secretary of State, Antony Blinklen during his visit to Nigeria’s presidential Villa Abuja on Tuesday. Credit: State House.

Yusuf Tuggar tweeted Anthony Blinken’s visit focused enhancing trade relations and deepening democracy in West Africa.

Nigerian president Bola Tinubu held discussions with the US secretary of state ahead of a press conference.

The US top diplomat said Nigeria had an essential part to play in how Africa could shape the global future.

“Nigeria as Africa’s largest country, largest economy, largest democracy, is essential to that effort [Editor’s note: referring to the role Africa has in shaping the future globally].”

“We are doing a lot of work together already to drive in a positive direction. We’re we’re we’re driving climate action. As partners in the Global Methane Coalition, we’re pushing for permanent representation for African voices in the U.N. Security Council, in other international organizations.”

“The United States is committed to strengthening genuine partnerships on the continent, to work to solve shared challenges, and also to deliver on the promise and the fundamental aspirations of our peoples,” Blinken said.

His trip is part of President Biden’s attempt to tout the USA as Africa’s key economic and security ally.

Nigeria is Blinken’s third stop on his tour of African nations, following Cape Verde and Ivory Coast. He will travel next to Angola.

Source: AfricaNews, 24th January 2024

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